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About Me
Shane Hauck
- Academics:
- Current Graduate Student at Carnegie Mellon University pursing my Masters in Applied Data Science (expected graduation May 2024).
- Graduated with a Bachelor of Science in Data Science and Sport Studies / Exercise Science from St. Lawrence University in May 2023.
- 5 Year NCAA DIII Varsity Soccer Player:
- 4-year member of the St. Lawrence Saints NCAA DIII Men’s Soccer program. 2-time Liberty League Champions and NCAA DIII Tournament participants. 2022 All Liberty League Honorable Mention.
- Walked onto Carnegie Mellon’s Tartan DIII Men’s Soccer program as a 5th year graduate student utilizing my extra year of eligibility lost through Covid.
- Portfolio of Sports Analytics Work:
- Examples of a variety of my sports analytics projects can be found at (www.shane-hauck-portfolio.com)
Additionally…
I’ve been a lifelong New York Red Bulls fan, and from my early years, the highlight of my week was watching their energetic games on a Saturday evening. Fascinated by the tactical side of soccer, I’ve analyzed the dynamic play associated with NYRB for a long time. The Red Bull style of play became ingrained in my identity as a player and soccer intellectual, shaping my belief that it represents the essence of how today’s game needs to be played.
As I delve into analyzing the 7-0 victory over NYCFC, it’s crucial to convey my profound understanding of the team’s style. Beyond the on-field action, the Red Bull Style encompasses more—it’s a philosophy that not only defines the team, but the company aswell. In this analysis, I’ll explore what it truly means to embody the Red Bull ethos. Subsequently, I’ll utilize additional data for a visual and metric-based analysis, rating the specific style of play on a scale from 0 to 1.
While this metric may not apply to the ‘Red Wedding,’ its development contributes to a calculated viewpoint on the Red Bull Style of Play. Through this analysis, I aim to underscore my deep understanding and belief in the Red Bull Way, recognizing that Red Bull themselves are the ultimate authority on who they are.
RED RUNS DEEP.
Overview of Red Bull’s Philosophy
Overview of Red Bull’s Philosophy
Introduction to Red Bull’s Distinctive Philosophy
- Mateschitz’s Vision:
- Embodies more than just an energy boost from the drink.
- Inspires aspirations for an active, performance-oriented, and challenge-driven lifestyle.
- Distinctive Business and Football Management:
- Red Bull’s success attributed to a unique philosophy in both business and football.
- Integration of business and footballing style for a large and impactful empire.
- Alignment with Soccer Philosophy:
- “Red Bull Gives You Wings” — an appeal to younger, thrill-seeking consumers.
- “This is an aggressive, proactive kind of football, which is never boring. A perfect fit to the brand!” — Ralph Rangnick.
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Overview of Red Bull’s Philosophy
Red Bull Football
Development of Football and Global Player Network:
A core goal: development of football through knowledge-sharing within a global network.
Creation of an intricate web of clubs worldwide, forming partnerships to elevate the sport.
By doing so, Red Bull has cultivated a network of players across world football playing in a consistent manner.
Recruitment and Player Development:
- Formation of dynamic, young squads capable of executing the demanding playing style.
Consistent Brand Identity:
- Consistency aids seamless transitions in playing and coaching moves between Red Bull clubs. -
- Not only amplifies recognition but also serves as a global ambassador, prominently displaying the Red Bull image across the world of sport.
Overview of Red Bull’s Philosophy
Ralph Rangnick’s Revolutionary Influence
Introduction of Aggressive, Proactive Gameplay:
Shifting from conventional to aggressive football philosophy.
Injecting a proactive approach focused on dominating opponents.
Transforming Red Bull’s style into an exciting and forward-thinking brand.
Evolution of Pressing as an Organized, Defensive Scheme:
Pioneering an organized pressing system in football.
Systematizing defensive strategies to win the ball back high up the field.
Departure from traditional defensive approaches, marking a football revolution.
Overview of Red Bull’s Philosophy
Red Bull Style of Play
Creative, Aggressive, and Attractive Football:
Emphasis on combining creativity and aggression for an attractive style.
Maintaining high-energy gameplay to play faster than opponents and dominate matches.
Pressing High and Intensively:
Committed to a relentless high press for regaining possession in attacking 3rd of the pitch.
Tactical cohesion with use of pressing triggers to systematically disrupt opponents and force errors.
Strategic Build-up and Transition:
- Initiating attacks from the defensive line utilizing direct play for switft transitions to capitalize on opportunities and score goals rapidly.
Prioritization of Goal Scoring:
Explicit focus on scoring goals as the primary objective.
Whether it’s making incisive passes, attempting dribbles, aggressive tackles or committing players forward; a willingness to take calculated risks are geared towards creating goal-scoring opportunities.
Overview of Red Bull’s Philosophy
Jesse Marsch’s S.A.R.D. acronym to articulate his tactical approach
Sprinting(S):
Importance of strategic sprinting, particularly in pressing situations.
Marsch encourages players to make twice as many out-of-possession sprints, focusing on timing and positioning.
Alle Gemeinsam (A):
Stands for ‘all together.’
Advocates for a ball-oriented pressing system where all players attack the ball collectively.
Reingehen (R):
Translates to ‘going in.’
Involves a commitment to fully attack the ball, discouraging players from stopping short of the opponent.
Dazukommen (D):
Represents the second wave of the press.
Importance of each press wave being supported by additional players.
Overview of Red Bull’s Philosophy
NYRB 2018 Supporters Shield Winners:
The Epitome of the Red Bull Style
Frenzied, organized high press.
Offensive Dynamics Mirroring Defensive Intensity
BWP leading the line: Key role in shrinking the field and initiating the press.
Playmakers and Midfield Disrupters: Kaku, wingers, Tyler Adams and Sean Davis intensify the high-pressure strategy.
Direct and Intense Attack
Keep the ball in the opposition’s half.
Attacking Patterns: Center backs play long to BWP, fullbacks deliver driven passes into front 4, and the midfield pivot propels direct attacks.
Most importantly: Style translated to winning success
Using Data to Define the “Red Bull Style of Play”
“Red Bull Style of Play”
Introduction to Tactical Data Analysis
Objective:
Conducting a tactical data analysis on the “Red Bull Style of Play”.
Quantify and analyze the New York Red Bulls Style of Play over the past six seasons.
Data:
Developed Python script for efficient data scraping from FBREF.com.
Data covers:
- MLS Match Logs from all games in the 2018 to 2023 seasons.
“Red Bull Style of Play”
Process of Calculating Percentiles
The What:
- Percentiles indicate where each club’s average normalized values for each stat stand compared to the overall distribution of teams.
The Why:
- With the Red Bulls distinct, energetic and some might say unbalanced style of play they tend to be in the tail ends of the distributions of various metrics.
- Percentiles were calculated to see what stats the NYRB were accumulating the most over the past 6 seasons compared to the rest of the MLS.
- This helps do 2 things:
Investigate some of these variables further to see how “extreme” the play style is.
Use these percentiles as weights in a metric defining “Red Bull Style of Play” to value what is “important” to the style.
The How:
First, find the mean for each variable for each club in each year.
- \(\mu_i = \text{mean}(\text{x}_i \mid (\text{club} \cap \text{year}))\)
Next, create a normalized value based on said mean for each variable.
- \(N_i = (\mu_i - min(\mu) / (max(\mu) - min(\mu))\)
Then, for each club take the mean of the normalized values.
- \(M_i = mean(N_i | club)\)
Finally, calculate the percentile for the mean of the averaged normalized values.
- \(P_i = M_i / max(M)\)
“Red Bull Style of Play”
Process of Calculating Style of Play Metric
The What:
- A metric that can be applied for each team to each game to quantify a value that represents the “Red Bull Style of Play”.
- Values between 0 and 1 where as the value increases towards 1 the teams style of play for the game more closely mirrors the “Red Bull Style of Play”.
The Why:
- The metric is designed to align with the Red Bull distinct style, capturing the essence of their dynamic and appealing approach to the game while showing how different they are to other teams.
- Recognizes that certain statistical attributes, when exhibited by the team, contribute more significantly to embodying the distinctive and impactful style.
- Enables a nuanced understanding of how closely a team’s style of play mirrors the energetic and unbalanced characteristics of play.
The How:
First, create a normalized value for each statistic for each match.
- \(N_i = (x - min(x) / (max(x) - min(x))\)
Then, multiply normalized values by the NYRB percentile for given stat.
- \(S_i = (N_i * P_{ij} )| j = NYRB)\)
Calculate the mean of the multiplied values for each match.
- \({\mu}_k = mean(S_k)\)
Normalize the means to create the metric for “Red Bull Style of Play” with values between 0 & 1.
- \({RBSOP}_k = (\mu_k - min(\mu)) / (max(\mu) - min(\mu))\)
“Red Bull Style of Play”
Process of Calculating Win Probability
The What:
- A metric that can be applied to each game signifying “how well they played” or how likely they were to win based on all statistics excluding statistics about goals.
- Values between -1 and 1 where:
- -1 = Loss
- 0 = Draw
- 1 = Win
The Why:
- Something to compare Red Bull Style of Play metric to.
- See if there appears to be some sort of relationship with the Red Bull Style of Play and winning soccer.
The How:
- Fit a Random Forest model of games from 6 seasons regressing the Result of match based on statistics excluding goals for each team.
“Red Bull Style of Play”
Evaluating NYRB Percentiles
NYRB ranks in the top percentile for 28 variables (~11% of the time).
Many variables with a high percentile directly relate to the distinct “Red Bull Style of Play” as described earlier.
- Some of these variables showcase the strengths of the style as well as the weaknesses.
Variables that have a relatively low percentile shows some of the inverse effects of the chaotic nature of the style.
New York Red Bull Percentiles:
See Glossary on Match Log pages on Fbref.com to get descriptions of most variables. (Please feel free to reach out if you have any questions as I also feature engineered a few variables).
“Red Bull Style of Play”
Evaluating “Red Bull Statistics”
Below is just a few of potentially many graphs that can be used to visualize the distinct style of play that NYRB possesses chosen from the percentiles on the previous slide.
The graphs show the per 90 minutes stats in each year with NYRB colored in red.
These graphs illustrate the Red Bulls’ consistent playing style over the past six seasons.
NYRB points consistently appear away from the normal distribution, setting them apart from the rest of the league in crucial statistical categories that hold particular significance for their team.
“Red Bull Style of Play”
Evaluation on RBSOP and Win Probability Scale
Use previously defined Red Bull Style of Play metric and Win Probabilities to investigate the “Red Bull Style of Play” and how it relates to winning soccer.
The graph looks at the per 90 minute RBSOP and Winning Probability for each season.
Jesse Marsch’s 2018 Red Bull team is the relative standout from recent seasons as their style of play best translated to winning success across the entirety of the season.
The Red Wedding
The Red Wedding
Data Analysis of NYRB’s 7-0 Win over NYCFC
Task:
- Using provided StatsBomb event data from the 2016 game to tell the “Story of the Game.”
Overview of the Game:
- Not one, but two Dax McCarty headers.
- A Bradley Wright-Phillips bicycle kick.
- It was the perfect storm for the Red Bulls, who concluded their fourth game against NYCFC with seven goals on the scoresheet.
- The final scoreline of 7-0 remains tied for the largest margin of victory in MLS history.
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The Red Wedding
The Story of The Game
- Red Bulls Dominated.
- Even though NYCFC held onto the ball for longer periods of time it was NYRB who dominated the field positioning as the majority of the game was played in their attacking 3rd.
- The high field positioning resulted in consistent plays of positive Net On Ball Value showcasing how NYRB was purposeful with doing the right things and playing forward.
- NYRB was structurally position high up the field in both defense and attack.
- The Red Bull Press Never Stops.
Concluding Thoughts
In this presentation, I delved into the distinctive philosophy and style of play embraced by the New York Red Bulls, commonly known as “The Red Bull Way.” From the foundational principles established by Dietrich Mateschitz’s vision to the influential role of Ralph Rangnick in shaping an aggressive and proactive gameplay, we explored the dynamic and unique approach that sets the Red Bulls apart.
The philosophy extends beyond the pitch, integrating business and football management into a cohesive strategy, creating a global network of clubs and players that share a consistent style. The emphasis on creativity, aggression, and an attractive brand of football became evident through strategic build-up, high-intensity pressing, and a relentless pursuit of goal-scoring opportunities.
My analysis went further by using data from match logs to quantify and define the “Red Bull Style of Play.” We introduced a metric that measures how closely a team’s style mirrors the energetic and unbalanced characteristics of the Red Bull approach. The evaluation of percentiles highlighted key variables where the Red Bulls consistently excel or face challenges, providing a nuanced understanding of their distinctive playstyle.
Additionally, I explored the relationship between the Red Bull Style of Play metric and win probabilities, showcasing how the team’s unique approach correlates with success on the field. Jesse Marsch’s 2018 team stood out as a remarkable example of successfully translating their style into winning soccer.
Finally, I conducted a detailed analysis of a historic game – the 7-0 victory over NYCFC. The “Red Wedding” witnessed an extraordinary performance, with goals reflecting the team’s dominance, purposeful play, and relentless pressing.
For next steps, ideally what I would have liked to do for this project was to apply my RBSOP metric to this one particular game to see how it stacks up to the distribution compared to the rest of the games in terms of the “Red Bull Style of Play”. Given a sufficient amount of data the metric can be reproduced, better evaluated, potentially altered and improved. I also had the intention of comparing NYRB to an MLS adjusted version of RB Leipzig (I had the data scraped and everything), but due to a lack of time I’ll have to save that analysis for another day.
In conclusion, the Red Bull philosophy and style of play represent a holistic approach that transcends traditional boundaries between business and sports. The commitment to an aggressive and attractive brand of football, coupled with data-driven analysis, defines the Red Bull Way and shapes the team’s success on the field.
Please let me know if you have any questions or request further insights. I am looking forward to hearing your feedback.
Sincerly,
Shane Hauck
Carnegie Mellon University — Masters of Applied Data Science
Personal Email: hauckshane@gmail.com
School Email: shauck@andrew.cmu.edu
Phone: (203) 501 - 9173